![]() ![]() While there is much play in the wheel, so to speak, with respect to timing between the correlations of gold and the stock market (SPX as the broad US measure) to the yield curve, gold is generally correlated to a steepening yield curve and stocks are correlated to a flattening curve. Nor did the next yield curve inversion in 1989. That situation, after a couple of recessions (shaded areas), resolved pleasantly disinflationary (as opposed to outright deflationary) as the resulting steepener – after several stops and starts – never did become impulsive. Today's situation is testing the inverted levels of uproarious events of the late 1970s to early 1980s. While people tend to worry about a yield curve inversion being a trigger to economic recession, it is actually the steepening that follows that usually brings the trouble, whether it be inflationary or deflationary. The 10yr-2yr curve is burrowing southward, perhaps for a test of the inversion low earlier this year. Goldilocks lives during a yield curve flattener. Goldilocks, favoring Tech, Semiconductor and Growth stocks, has held sway as we also projected. There are plenty of other high risk indicators currently in play on the macro but focusing on one important indicator, let's note that the extreme yield curve inversion that has taken place over the last year indicates that time is running out for the current macro backdrop, which sees a hawkish (and once again tardy, as it was with its silly "transitory inflation" blathering a couple years ago) Fed tilting at the inflationary windmill it was primary in creating. Here is one post discussing the rally in November, 2022. It is important to have credibility and indeed, NFTRH planned for a potential humdinger of a bear market rally back in Q4, 2022 based on the inputs of then extremely over-bearish sentiment, the bullish mid-term election cycle (which on average projects bullish for a year, post-election), a coming fade in inflation signals (with the attendant hopes for a softening Fed) being its primary elements. I have a Goldilocks Mini-Unit with printables that you can use with ANY Goldilocks book, as well as printables specifically for the books denoted above.As the 10yr-2yr yield curve inversion plays out, the time is coming for a turn in fortunesīefore proceeding, I'd like to remind you that this article is not written by a perma-bear. Using familiar texts with a predictable pattern of events, helps students practice writing about beginning, middle, and end. Students also need to be able to describe the beginning, middle, and end of a story (which is something that is easier said than done). Part of our second grade standards require students to compare and contrast different versions of the same story, and these books lend themselves so well to just that. ![]() * Books that have comprehension checks in the Goldilocks mini-unit. ![]() Goldilocks and the Three Bears (Parragon Books) * Goldilocks and the Three Bears (Candice Ransom) * Goldilocks and the Three Bears (James Marshall) * Goldilocks and the Three Bears (Caralyn Buehner) This means I receive a small commission if you purchase something through that link, at no extra cost to you, that helps keep my blog running and helps fund giveaways! ![]() Throughout this post, you’ll find Amazon Affiliate links. ![]()
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